Figure : Cumulative fiscal multiplier of home appliance policies in
Figure : Cumulative fiscal multiplier of automobile policies in
Source: China Government Network, Wind, CICC Research Department
► The multiplier of consumption subsidies in the past few rounds has tended to decline, and the increase in product retention rate may affect the policy effect. The policy multipliers in early years were larger than those in ivory coast phone number list recent years, and both automobiles and home appliances showed this feature. We believe that in the early years, the car and home appliance ownership rates were low and the potential demand was large, so the policy stimulus effect was better. As residents' ownership of durable goods gradually reaches saturation, policies tend to stimulate replacement demand, which has relatively small elasticity. However, supplyside innovation may bring new growth. For example, this year's automobile policy multiplier is higher than in . In addition to the possible impact of the epidemic at that time, supplyside innovation has brought about a rapid increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles, which is also an important reason for the better policy effect.
Figure : Car ownership and fiscal multiplier
Source: Wind, CICC Research Department
Figure : Home Appliance Ownership & Multiplier
Note: As the data on urban residents’ ownership jumped in , in order to maintain comparability, the ownership in the figure refers to that of rural residents. Source: Wind, CICC Research Department.