Bias, according to Roese and Vohs (2012), takes place at three stackable levels
Posted: Sun Dec 22, 2024 10:43 am
"I don't remember saying that": when we misremember our judgment about an event.
"Anyone could have seen that coming": when we think an event is inevitable.
"I told you this would happen": when we believe the event was foreseeable.
Again, three variables affect the level at which hindsight bias occurs, and thus our tendency to overestimate our predictive abilities:
Cognitive: the confirmation bias, in which we selectively thailand telephone number remember that information that confirms our opinion.
Metacognitive: when, looking back, you have a good understanding of why something happened, you start to believe that you knew this before, according to availability heuristic.
Motivating: it feels comfortable if the world is predictable and it gives a positive image about yourself if you knew the outcome of an event all along.
Examples in practice
Examples of statements and situations where hindsight bias plays a role:
"I always knew he would succeed in becoming a successful entrepreneur!"
After a colleague unexpectedly resigns, and looking back you see all kinds of signs for this, "I always had the feeling he didn't like it here."
Banks, when looking back at financial fluctuations, may forget to move themselves back in time with the knowledge and resources of the time and therefore think they can predict future changes.
The percentage of voters who thought before the election that a particular political party was going to win is smaller than the percentage who thought so retroactively after the election.
You buy stocks. In hindsight it turns out to be a very good choice and you commend yourself for your excellent understanding of the market. The stocks seem like a very logical choice in retrospect.
"Anyone could have seen that coming": when we think an event is inevitable.
"I told you this would happen": when we believe the event was foreseeable.
Again, three variables affect the level at which hindsight bias occurs, and thus our tendency to overestimate our predictive abilities:
Cognitive: the confirmation bias, in which we selectively thailand telephone number remember that information that confirms our opinion.
Metacognitive: when, looking back, you have a good understanding of why something happened, you start to believe that you knew this before, according to availability heuristic.
Motivating: it feels comfortable if the world is predictable and it gives a positive image about yourself if you knew the outcome of an event all along.
Examples in practice
Examples of statements and situations where hindsight bias plays a role:
"I always knew he would succeed in becoming a successful entrepreneur!"
After a colleague unexpectedly resigns, and looking back you see all kinds of signs for this, "I always had the feeling he didn't like it here."
Banks, when looking back at financial fluctuations, may forget to move themselves back in time with the knowledge and resources of the time and therefore think they can predict future changes.
The percentage of voters who thought before the election that a particular political party was going to win is smaller than the percentage who thought so retroactively after the election.
You buy stocks. In hindsight it turns out to be a very good choice and you commend yourself for your excellent understanding of the market. The stocks seem like a very logical choice in retrospect.